BEIRUT: Syrian rebels have toppled President Bashar al-Assad after a lightning offensive which in under two weeks has seen major cities slip from government’s fingers, culminating in rebels capturing the capital Damascus on Sunday.
Aron Lund, a fellow at the Century International think tank, told AFP this week that “the main factor” in the rebels’ success was “regime weakness and reduced international assistance to Assad.”
Islamist rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s “work on building up institutions and centralising much of the rebellion under his own control is also a big part of the story”, he added.
Syria’s grinding civil war began with a crackdown on anti-government protests in 2011. The front lines had remained largely unchanged for the past four years, until the rebels launched their massive offensive.
Here are some of the reasons behind Assad’s sudden demise.
Army hollowed out
Assad’s army is little more than a hollow shell amid a war that has killed more than half a million people and devastated the country’s economy, infrastructure and industry.
In the war’s early years, experts said a combination of casualties, defections and draft-dodging saw the military lose around half of its 300,000-strong force.
According to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor, the army put up little significant resistance in some areas after the rebels launched their offensive on November 27.
It reported soldiers repeatedly evacuating positions across the country.
“Since 2011, Syria’s army has faced attrition in manpower, equipment and morale,” said David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
Underpaid soldiers had reportedly looted resources to survive, and many young men have evaded conscription, he told AFP.
On Wednesday, Assad ordered a 50 percent raise in career soldiers’ pay, but with Syria’s economy in tatters, soldiers’ salaries are almost worthless.
The army has not officially commented since Damascus fell to the rebels.