While Reform, with its anti-establishment and anti-immigration rhetoric, is aiming to attract disaffected voters from both Conservatives and Labour, it’s likely to take more votes from Sunak’s party.
“The intervention of Farage has made it even less likely that Rishi Sunak will remain in Downing Street than was already the case — minimal though those prospects were,” said John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde.
Sunak then flew home early from commemorations in France of the 80th anniversary of D-Day so he could resume campaigning. The photos of centenarian World War II veterans and an array of world leaders including U.S. President Joe Biden attending the solemn ceremony on Omaha Beach without him were a publicity nightmare.
Sunak quickly realized his error and apologized.
Paul Goodman, a former Conservative lawmaker who is now a member of the House of Lords, said the irony is that apart from the D-Day gaffe, “the Conservatives have run a perfectly decent, conventional campaign,” but have little to show for it.
“They’ve launched lots of policies, they’ve had some hits on Labour,” he said. “Rishi Sunak actually did pretty well in the debate (against Starmer) last week. … All of this appears to have made no difference at all.”
Labour, eyeing a return to power after 14 years in opposition, is running a cautious campaign centered on the single word “change.” Starmer’s core message — which dismays some in his left-of-center party — is that he has transformed Labour from its high-taxing, big-spending days into a party of the stable center.
“Politics is a relative business,” said Philip Cowley, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “You don’t have to be liked, you just have to be more popular than the other guy. And that’s what the Labour Party by and large are managing to pull off.”
While opinion polls giving Labour a double-digit lead may change, Curtice, one of Britain’s leading polling experts, said Sunak was facing a steep mountain to climb even before he called the election.
“Arguably the Tories’ days were numbered the moment that Liz Truss fouled up,” he said. “Because no government that has presided over a market crisis has survived at the ballot box.”