Arcadia, – December 26: Jockey Lanfranco Dettori (6) riding Country Grammer wins the San Antonio … [+]
Whatever else he is doing, and he does a lot as he digs out from his recent ban, Bob Baffert is having a fine 2023 Saudi Cup. Country Grammer, currently hovering as the $20-million feature’s second- or third-favorite with a slew of US and international bookmakers, is his horse, as well as the top favorite Taiba.
The facts are these: Taiba is maturing late and really coming on now as a four-year-old. Country Grammer is six and counting, with a not-quite-as stellar career behind him. Saturday is not exactly programmed as his swan song, but it well could be. Together, in the Saudi Cup’s large patchwork field for the not-quite mile-and-an-eighth, both of these talented Baffert horses are the class and seem at least somewhat untouchable by the eleven horses in what Tour de France cyclists would call the peloton. And of course, by definition, the chosen two will have to battle with each other.
But before we get into the nitty-gritty of the combatants’ past performances and pedigree, a refresher on the post positions and odds. Note: According to Riyadh custom, the horses are listed by program number, with post positions following.
(Program Number, Post Position, Horse, Odds)
1, 13. Café Pharoah, 4-1
2, 10. Country Grammer, 6-1
3, 3. Crown Pride, 10-1
4, 8. Emblem Road, 10-1
5, 12. Geoglyph, 20-1
6, 6. Jun Light Bolt, 8-1
7, 1. Panthalassa, 10-1
8, 7. Remorse, 30-1
9, 4. Scotland Yard, 20-1
10, 2. Taiba, 5-2
11, 9. Vin De Garde, 20-1
12, 11. Lagertha Rhyme, 30-1
13, 5. Sunset Flash, 30-1
(Odds: Brisnet, 2/24/2023)
Since they’re horses and there is $20 million in play between them on Saturday, it’s fair to say that many thousands of people solely connected to the Country Grammer and Taiba through the global tote will care deeply about how the contest between them — should we be fortunate enough to see one — turns out. As ever, each contender carries an array of talents and vulnerabilities going in. Country Grammer is adept at the distance and has the moxie to take on his younger-by-two-years stablemate, but he is coming in as the slight underdog and will have to run a perfect race. Taiba has more margin for error, having just taken the Malibu Stakes in December with a very tactical, present sort of flair, and somehow giving his many fans a reason to think he’s capable of more.
Breaking from the moderately disadvantageous second post position, Taiba will have to get away smartly. Put another way, Mike Smith will be under great pressure to have exactly the same sort of super-crisp start that he had in the Malibu. One key to understanding the Gun Runner-sired colt is to ponder Baffert’s pithy quote to the press at Santa Anita in the post-Malibu celebrations.
“He (Mike Smith) put him into the race right away – that’s not Taiba’s style,” Baffert said.
The emphasis should be on that last parenthetical clause: Baffert basically admits that Taiba is not the greatest at getting away quickly. If we couple that in this race with the horse’s deeply inside post position, with the majority of the field highly interested in coming down on him so that they can box him in, then we have the makings for a bad start. Now, the estimable Mr. Smith does outweigh that scenario somewhat, and it’s fair to note that Taiba has overcome plenty of bad starts and gone on to hit the board, if not exactly to land in the winner’s circle.
Bottom line: Taiba’s vulnerable in the early going, not so much in the teeth of the race.
And the corollary to that is also true: Country Grammer is more vulnerable in the teeth of the race and in the last two furlongs, where, typically, Taiba has been known to rebound, if not exactly to shine. A brief glance at his career is useful in backing that up. Country Grammer has won exactly one Grade 1 stakes and placed in three. True, he’s coming off a win in the Grade 2 San Antonio at Santa Anita in late December, but his sole Grade 1 win was eighteen months before that.
He placed honorably behind Flightline between those wins, as many horses also would have done. No dishonor to him there, but he does carry this ineffable quality of a place horse to him — whether or not that is earned or perceived remains to be decided. His challenge on Saturday will be to put that perception to rest.