Super Bowl Odds And Season Win Totals As 2021 NFL Season Begins

The final futures bets have been pouring in at leading online sportsbooks as the 2021 NFL season kicks of this week. The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most popular bet to win the Super Bowl again followed by the Kansas City Chiefs.

The odds to win the Super Bowl will adjust throughout the season, and bettors can still place championship bets on teams of interest as the season moves along.

The new 17 game regular season presents a different dynamic when setting season win totals. The odds and charts below can be fun to follow as they change, and also offer an opportunity as you gauge team and player performances, injuries and scheduling situations.

I’ve received betting data from a number of sportsbook operators, and have provided the Super Bowl odds and season win totals from BetMGM.

Notable Super Bowl Bets 

BetMGM has taken the following big bets to win Super Bowl LVI on February 13, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

• $30,000 to win $210,000 on Buccaneers (+700)
• $25,000 to win $200,000 on Buccaneers (+800)
• $19,000 to win $266,000 on Packers (+1400)
• $10,000 to win $300,000 on Patriots (+3000)
• $6,000 to win $36,000 on Buccaneers (+600)
• $5,000 to win $100,000 on Colts (+2000)
• $4,000 to win $400,000 on Giants (+1000)
• $4,0000 to win $500,000 on Eagles (+12500)

The biggest bet to win either conference is on the Seahawks, $17,857 to win $250,000 at +1400 to win the NFC.

And one bettor bet $5,000 to win $70,000 on Tom Brady to be regular season Most Valuable Player (MVP).

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the popular bet and pick to win this year, and a big liability to the sportsbooks in the Super Bowl futures market, the top teams are not always the biggest liability.

In fact, four teams picked to finish last or near the bottom of their divisions are BetMGM’s biggest liability in the division betting market – Detroit Lions (+2500), Cincinnati Bengals (+2500), Jacksonville Jaguars (+650) and New York Giants (+450)

Also, the Denver Broncos, with an over/under season win total of 8.5, have taken the most bets to make the playoffs at BetMGM. The Broncos are currently +135 to make the playoffs. The next most popular bets to make the playoffs are the Detroit Lions (+650) and Philadelphia Eagles (+275) as bettors shoot for a bigger score.

The most bet team to miss playoffs at BetMGM is the New Orleans Saints, followed by the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sharp bettors played the New Orleans Saints under season wins. I posted and bet the Saints under, which is down from 9.5 to 9. The Saints first nine games are more difficult. Combined with the schedule situation, QB Jameis Winston taking over, increased travel and Hurricane Ida impact, and you can see why bettors are banking the Saints struggling.

Professional bettor Steve Fezzik provides key season win total insight and picks on the Ross Tucker Even Money betting podcast. He bet the Saints under season wins, and Fezzik notes that NFC teams all play nine road games.

“You want to play select NFC teams under. It’s the optimal way to play season wins,” Fezzik said.

Fezzik added the Philadelphia Eagles to his under season win total bets, along with the expected struggles of the Chicago Bears.

“I had Jalen Hurts as the worst quarterback in the NFL, and now the second-worst rated with rookie QB Mac Jones starting for the Patriots,” Fezzik adds.

Strength of schedule should also factor in the travel and schedule situations, and the new 17 games schedule adds an additional dynamic especially for NFC teams playing an extra game on the road.

“There is nothing to like about the Bears in my opinion,” Fezzik says. That includes the offensive line, which is rated one of the worst in the league by Pro Football Focus. Will rookie QB Justin Fields bet starting by October? Regardless, a poor offensive line and road games at LA Rams, Cleveland and Tampa Bay early, and at Green Bay and Seattle in December present additional challenges for Chicago.

For AFC teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders face the toughest schedules based on opponents season wins at BetMGM. They are joined by the Houston Texans, who have the lowest season win total and worst roster, and clearly the favorite to finish with the worst record this season.

You can bet on it.