Premier League title race: Will Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City win?


There is just one point separating Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta plans to follow Thursday’s game between Liverpool and Sheffield United on television – after Reds boss Jurgen Klopp claimed he did not even know the Gunners and Manchester City were in midweek action.

It means the top three are separated by just one point, although Liverpool have a game in hand and will return to the summit if they beat the Blades at Anfield.

Earlier on Wednesday, Klopp told reporters: “I didn’t even know that [Arsenal and City] play tonight. I expect them always to win so it’s not about that.

“We need to get our points in, we need to win our football games, so I’m honestly not interested.”

However, Arteta will be tuning in to see how Liverpool fare against the Premier League’s bottom club.

“I know they are playing tomorrow against Sheffield United at home and we will be watching it because I love to watch top teams play and that’s what I do,” said the Arsenal boss following his side’s comfortable win over Luton.

Asked how important it was for Arsenal to be top if only for 24 hours, Arteta added: “That means that we are there. We are really close.

“We are showing a lot of consistency to be where we are. Now that’s it. Sleep, eat, prepare well. Now it’s Brighton [on Saturday].”

Arsenal still third favourites despite being top

After Sunday’s 0-0 draw against Arsenal, Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola said “always who is first is favourite”.

But Opta disagrees following Wednesday’s results, with their 10,000 ‘supercomputer’ simulationsexternal-link still favouring second-placed Liverpool on 41.9%.

The Gunners, who have eight games left like City, are third favourites with just a 23.2% chance of going all the way.

Team % chance of winning title Current position & points
1. Liverpool 41.9 2nd – 67 points
2. Man City 34.9 3rd – 67 points
3. Arsenal 23.2 1st – 68 points

Current table

Team Played Points GD GS Form (past 5 games)
1. Arsenal 30 68 48 72 WWWDW
2. Liverpool 29 67 40 67 WWWDW
3. Man City 30 67 38 67 WWDDW
If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference, and if still level, goals scored

What are the remaining fixtures?

April Sheffield United (H)
Manchester United (A) Crystal Palace (A) Brighton (A)
Crystal Palace (H) Luton (H) Aston Villa (H)
Fulham (A) Wolves (A)
Everton (A) Brighton (A) Chelsea (H)
West Ham (A) Nottingham Forest (A) Tottenham (A)
May Tottenham (H) Wolves (H) Bournemouth (H)
Aston Villa (A) Fulham (A) Manchester United (A)
Wolves (H) West Ham (H) Everton (H)
Postponed to date tbc Tottenham (A)

When were the other closest three-way title races?

There have been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been separated by just two points towards the end of a 38-game season.

2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014, only two points separated Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, but City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool – characterised by Steven Gerrard’s famous slip in their defeat against Chelsea and then Crystal Palace’s comeback from three goals down to draw 3-3 – to snatch the title.

2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Manchester United a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were part-way through a run of 11 consecutive wins and sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.

1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left, Manchester United were level on 61 points with Newcastle, and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.

What happened at this stage last year?

Graph showing how the 2022-23 Premier League title race unfolded
Three draws in a row for Arsenal in April 2023 saw their title challenge lose momentum last season as Manchester City took the trophy

What if they finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Whatever happens, there are certain to be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the campaign on 19 May.

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