Importantly, this was the second election in quick succession, after the Lok Sabha, when voter turnout indicated people’s enthusiasm in the election process. The turnout in these polls increased by more than 5%. Unfortunately, division based on religious identities has reared its head again. That worry apart, the National Conference-led alliance comprising Congress and CPI(M) has a majority, which settles ‘fears’ of central rule in the event of a hung assembly.
The situation in the UT, with demand for restoration of statehood being uppermost in the polls, necessitates the Centre to respect the mandate and welcome formation of the new government. A test case will be the nomination of five lieutenant governor-nominated members to the assembly. Will Manoj Sinha do this in consultation with the new Omar Abdullah government? The road to normalcy will only become longer in the event of the Centre not being sensitive to people’s choice.
If the verdict from J&K is food for thought for Narendra Modi and his colleagues in government and party, they will heave a sigh of relief at the results from Haryana. They may not accept it, but this is less a victory seized by BJP and more a gift from Congress, especially former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda.
Congress, especially its national leadership, has not learnt from the past, and was doomed to repeat it. In Nov-Dec 2023, before the election campaign generated heat and gathered dust, party satraps in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh almost declared that the state polls were in their bag. In the same vein, there was little that appeared to be going BJP’s way in Haryana.The party faltered badly handling two agitations that had considerable resonance in the state – the farmers’ strife and wrestlers’ protest. Added to this was the dissatisfaction with the Agniveer scheme, leading to the theory that the three principal political narratives in Haryana – kisan, jawan, pehelwan – were against BJP.Even the bete noire of many in the wrestling establishment and BJP state unit, Vinesh Phogat, ruled out returning to the mat and stepped into the electoral arena. Coupled with all this was the issue of ineffective governance under ex-CM Manohar Lal Khattar, who was hastily changed barely seven months ago.
Despite a tailor-made pitch, Congress faltered by putting all eggs in Hooda’s basket. Like Kamal Nath in MP, Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh earlier, Hooda decided to play solo and didn’t allow anyone else from the party (read: Kumari Selja) even a toehold, never mind a say in ticket distribution.
This sent a wrong signal to non-Jats in the state, especially Dalits – if Hooda, a veteran Jat leader, was unwilling to accommodate leaders of other castes from his party, this would have a cascading effect in the state.
BJP had given a new turn to social engineering in 2014 after securing majority. It appointed Khattar, a non-Jat, as CM, signalling a shift in strategy along with Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where leaders from non-dominant communities were also chosen as CMs. Hooda’s recalcitrance enabled BJP to polarise non-Jat communities behind it. However, because of fear of reprisals from a dominant community, their choice was kept ‘secret’. Consequently, almost every pollster failed to read the electorate’s mind.
Clearly, Congress is short of a counter-strategy to BJP’s ‘saam-daam-dand-bhed’ (patience, persuasion, punishment, using force) style of electoral politics. Its leaders also forget that nothing is over until it’s over – here, counting being the case.
Within Congress, national politicians, especially Rahul Gandhi, need to be more assertive when dealing with dominant straps. If Selja could be ‘convinced’ to join others during the campaign’s conclusive stages, Hooda, too, could have been directed to be more accommodative.
Haryana’s result, and even J&K’s to some extent, comes as a relief to BJP as it signals that its dramatic slide in the Lok Sabha polls has halted for the moment. This will boost party morale before politically crucial Maharashtra, Jharkhand and even Delhi polls.
Although Modi played a minor role in Haryana, the M-factor will be amplified by this win. In Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where polls are likely to be called soon, Maha Vikas Aghadi-led and JMM-led alliances will face enhanced challenges.
As for the Lok Sabha polls, non-Congress INDIA parties will be strengthened by Congress’ failure to convert penalties. For BJP, however, it’s too early to cast away the label of being a party with 240 seats, 32 short of majority.