Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations — Hungary, Slovakia and Italy — and are part of the ruling coalition in others, including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands. Polls give the populists an advantage in France, Belgium, Austria and Italy.
Surveys suggest that mainstream and pro-European parties will retain their majority in parliament, but that the hard right, including parties led by politicians like Wilders or France’s Marine Le Pen will eat into their share of seats.
The biggest political group — the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) — has already edged away from the middle ground, campaigning on traditional far-right issues like more security, tougher migration laws, and a focus on business over social welfare concerns.
Much may depend on whether the brothers of Italy — the governing party of populist far-right Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, which has neo-fascist roots — stays in the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), or becomes part of a new hard-right group that could be created in the wake of the elections. Meloni also has the further option to work with the EPP.
The second-biggest group — the center-left Socialists and Democrats — and the Greens refuse to align themselves with the ECR. A more dire scenario for pro-European parties would be if the ECR joins forces with Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy to consolidate hard-right influence.
Questions remain over what group Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party might join. It was previously part of the EPP but was forced out in 2021 due to conflicts over its interests and values.
The EU’s parliament doesn’t propose laws, but it must weigh in on draft proposals on topics ranging from climate, agriculture and fisheries, to banking rules, security and justice. It can also block the appointment of top officials to the powerful EU commission.