Planes in place, now the airspace

This year, IndiGo and Air India have placed orders for half the planes Indian airlines are expected to add over the next 15 years in the world’s fastest-growing aviation market, India. This makes commercial sense as the airlines are locking in aircraft prices and delivery timelines at the onset of a global revival in the aviation industry. IndiGo’s order to Airbus for 500 narrow-bodied jets that fly on shorter routes underpins the market leader’s confidence about the growth of low-cost domestic aviation. Air India’s mix of narrow- and wide-bodied aircraft from Airbus and Boeing represents India’s ambition of becoming an international transit hub.

Pieces other than a bigger fleet of commercial jetliners must also fall in places before either aim can be achieved. India needs all manner of things to accommodate the delivery pipelines for Airbus and Boeing. Jet fuel pricing makes budget aviation a fraught exercise running on thin margins. Airports are overcrowded for both flyers and aircraft. More flight training schools are needed to teach pilots at home. Localised aircraft maintenance has been stunted by airline fleet sizes. All these hurdles will have to be overcome for Indian aviation to truly take off.

The next couple of decades offer the best window for India to transition from being a price taker in the aviation industry. The business needs millions of new Indian flyers to keep growing. And they should not be at the receiving end of slow technology transfer for indigenous commercial jet production. The size of India’s aviation market can only be sustained by seeding local value chains. In tandem with India’s status as the world’s largest arms buyer, commercial aviation should create wider pathways into aerospace for the country. This leverage also comes in handy for rewiring bilateral arrangements with the US and the EU, India’s largest trading partners.