On the foreign front, change could result in a nuclear deal with the U.S., a quiet winding down of the hostility to America and maybe even a re-establishment of diplomatic relations. Iran could reduce support to anti-Western militias in the region, establish deals with regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt and might even put an end to threatening Israel with destruction, finally acquiescing to its existence in the region. All of these policies are central tenets of Ayatollah Khamenei’s Iran.
Stripped away, it would lead to the lifting of sanctions, more foreign investment and thus a marked improvement to the economy. These developments might sound unthinkable today, but we only need to look at the recent history of the Islamic Republic to see major proponents of rapprochement with the West. Take former President Hassan Rouhani’s 2015 nuclear deal, for example, or the ongoing reconciliation with Saudi Arabia taking place even under the current leadership in Tehran.
This version of Iran would be a marked improvement to the struggling country of today, but it isn’t all that has been demanded by my compatriots who waged anti-regime protests time and time again — in 2009, 2017, 2019 and 2022. Nor is it the Iran dreamed of by our vibrant civil society, feminist groups, trade unions and student associations that have been at the forefront of confronting the regime: a truly democratic country, with social, economic and gender justice.
But it is the one most likely in the near future, due to the simple fact that military technocrats are more organized and likely to quickly fill the vacuum left by Ayatollah Khamenei’s death. Our struggles, however, won’t end with a mere change in rulers or some policies.
Arash Azizi is a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University, and the author of, “What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom.”
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