The Michigan measure was the one that had reproductive rights supporters on high alert. The state is politically mixed, and failure not only would have had awful repercussions for Michigan residents but also would have had a chilling effect on similar efforts being considered elsewhere.
In states where anti-abortion lawmakers control some of the levers of power, ballot initiatives may offer the best, most immediate hope of salvaging basic reproductive rights. Not all states allow for voters to directly initiate ballot proposals; state legislatures often put them forward. But of the 17 that do, “abortion rights supporters in at least 10 states with abortion bans or tight restrictions — Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota — are already discussing strategies and tactics for putting abortion initiatives on the 2024 presidential election ballot,” according to reporting from the Pew Charitable Trusts.
This is a daunting mission. Those who work on these campaigns say that they tend to be complicated, labor intensive and expensive. Petition drives for ballot initiatives have been growing more expensive since at least 2016, with the average cost doubling to just over $4 million in 2022 from just over $2 million in 2020, according to Ballotpedia. And the electoral skirmish over a measure can cost millions. (The two main campaigns in the Kansas contest raised a total of more than $11 million.) This is why funding from groups and individuals from outside the state is so vital.
Each campaign needs to be handled differently, based upon the views of the state’s electorate. There is no one-size-fits-all guide to victory. That said, there are basic lessons to come out of this year’s contests — especially in the not-so-blue areas — that can help guide future efforts.
To defeat the anti-choice measures in conservative states, reproductive rights proponents had to reach across the red-blue divide. They aimed to persuade rather than polarize, keeping the focus on women’s health, safety and fundamental rights rather than on voters’ tribal loyalties.
Kansas was the first to have citizens vote on abortion post-Roe, and the campaign there faced the most intense national scrutiny. The coalition leading the charge against the proposed amendment, Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, loudly touted its bipartisan nature. And even as local Democratic officials worked to defeat the measure — canvassing voters and distributing yard signs from their offices — they downplayed the usual partisan framing. (It is worth noting that Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, did not make abortion a focus of her re-election campaign.) By divorcing the issue from a particular party or candidates, reproductive rights supporters smoothed the way for crossover voting.
With an issue as delicate as abortion, success required running campaigns that were aggressive yet attuned to local sensibilities. What appeals to national activists or to voters in Sacramento does not necessarily play well in Omaha or Oklahoma City. Figuring out how best to approach the issue in a given state requires a lot of front-end foundational work — polling, focus groups and other research into what the local citizenry really thinks and feels.