No big deal, but still a deal to work on

Best to use the term ‘damp squib’ rather than the less-polite acronym in Hindi to describe the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) released at Baku COP29. After a decade of anticipation, two weeks of intensive negotiations and political bargaining, the deal is too little, too distant. It aims to triple finance to developing countries from the previous goal of $100 bn to $300 bn annually… by 2035. In the process, it shifts responsibility, relying on MDBs. The result? More loans, fewer grants, while developing countries shoulder the real action to adapt to climate impacts, address L&D, mitigate emissions and grow their economies – all without adding to their fiscal distress.

Yet, the deal is also perhaps the best possible outcome under the circumstances. Rich countries insisted high-income, high-emitting developing countries also contribute – a non-negotiable stance for the EU. The US, poised to exit the Paris Agreement with Trump waiting in the wings with a jerry can, required a deal they could return to. Sensing shifting dynamics, China backed a deal that recognised its role without imposing additional burdens. Gulf states prioritised a transition that wouldn’t be onerous for their oil and gas economies. Developing countries failed to unite and advocate for the deal they truly needed – more grants – leaving individual groups to negotiate their own concessions.

India must move beyond being a conscientious objector. It can help shape the $1.3 tn promise into a reality that addresses developing countries’ needs. With the Baku-to-Belem (host of COP30) roadmap for scaling up finances set for discussion over the next year, India must strategically engage to deliver for the ‘global south’.