As Canada heads into its federal election year, the ruling Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is facing a tough road ahead, with the opposition Conservative Party garnering nearly 50% support. This surge in Conservative support has been accompanied by mounting calls for Trudeau’s resignation, both from within his own party and the opposition.
Canada’s next general election is scheduled for October 2025 or earlier, if a no-confidence vote is triggered.
The latest survey from Nanos Research, released on December 31, shows the Conservatives leading by 26 points over the ruling Liberal Party. The poll indicates Conservative support at 46.6%, a level that could potentially result in a supermajority in the next House of Commons if these numbers hold.
“Conservative support hits a new long-term high with a 26-point advantage over the Liberals. This has occurred alongside calls for Trudeau to step down. Worry about jobs/economy has also hit a new four-year high,” Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research, noted.
Trudeau’s position has become increasingly precarious, with growing calls from within his own party for him to resign. His leadership is under intense scrutiny, fuelled by dissatisfaction over Canada’s economic and diplomatic challenges.
The call for Trudeau’s resignation escalated with the sudden resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister.
Freeland reportedly stepped down after disagreements over how to respond to US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods.
Recent Ipsos polls also show plummeting approval ratings for Trudeau, with only 33% of Canadians believing he is fit to remain as Prime Minister, while 67% disapprove of his leadership. This is a significant increase in disapproval since June 2024.
In a shift of political momentum, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has become the top choice for Prime Minister, with 45% support, well ahead of Trudeau, who is trailing at just 26%.
Further complicating Trudeau’s situation is the growing criticism from New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh, who had previously supported the government in key votes. After ending the agreement with Trudeau’s government in September, Singh has become a vocal critic, with his party’s numbers also dropping.
Jagmeet Singh was the latest person to ask Trudeau to step down from the position after his party’s Deputy Prime Minister quit.
“What it means is, going into 2025, the biggest winner is Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, and the biggest losers are both Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, because both the numbers for them and their parties are down in the close of 2024,” Nik Nanos was quoted as saying by CTV News.
Adding to Trudeau’s troubles, a recent Angus Reid Institute (ARI) poll released earlier this week showed the Liberal Party sinking to a historic low of just 16% support, marking a shocking decline for the party.
Trudeau, however, remains defiant, despite the pressure mounting from both his party and the opposition. He has said he will use the holiday period to reflect on his leadership choices, but his New Year’s message gave no indication that he is considering stepping down.
“As we count down to midnight tonight, I invite Canadians to join me in celebrating all that we have achieved together in 2024 and in looking toward a better and fairer future in the new year,” he said.