Chirag Paswan, one of the better dynasts of the country, is making life tougher for Nitish Kumar and bringing BJP close to the CM chair. Going with the slogan of “Modi tujhse bair nahi, Nitish teri khair nahi (PM Modi, We love you, but hate Nitish Kumar equally)”, the Chirag Paswan led LJP has decided to break away from the NDA alliance in Bihar to contest the election alone.
However, the party would field candidates only against Nitish Kumar led JD(U), which has got 122 seats in the alliance. The NDA has decided that JD(U) will contest while BJP got 121 seats. This is the first time that BJP, traditionally a junior partner in state elections- contested 102 seats in 2010 assembly election when the last time both parties fought together- has got around an equal number of seats.
Given the fact BJP has better strike rate as compared to JD(U) in almost every election the parties fought together, the tally of BJP in the 2020 assembly election is expected to be better as both parties are fighting on around an equal number of seats. LJP, which is projecting Chirag Paswan as an alternative to Nitish Kumar, has decided that it will field candidates on all seats being contested by JD(U), while BJP’s seats would be left uncontested.
Chirag Paswan has become very popular in the state in the last few years, especially after the Coronavirus lockdown when he directly took on Nitish Kumar on the migrants’ issue and gave popular slogans such as “Bihar first, Bihari first”. His party is expected to perform well on the seats it fields candidates against JD(U), and this will take the strike rate of Nitish Kumar’s party further down.
If BJP can win 80-90 seats out of 121 it is contesting, and LJP wins 25-35 seats out of 143 it has decided to contest, they can form the government on their own without any support from Nitish Kumar’s party. Even if the alliance needs a few MLAs to form the government, the leaders in JD(U) camp would be more than willing to support a BJP CM as many of them themselves do not like Nitish Kumar who is stuck with CM chair for last one and a half decades and is not giving chance to young leaders to come forward in the hierarchy.
So, it looks like Chirag Paswan would help BJP to win the CM post in the state of Bihar for the first time in more than four decades of the party’s existence. Nitish Kumar, who must be aware of these permutations and combinations, is unable to do anything as he needs BJP to become CM, not the other way around.
Nitish Kumar who has experience of almost one-and-a half-decade on the top chair of the state has come out as one of the most incompetent leaders amid the Coronavirus pandemic and even before that, his election slogans like “Kyu Karein vichar, thike to hai Nitish Kumar” hasn’t exactly inspired a whole lot of confidence.
The anti-incumbency factor and the fact that the general public has grown tired of Nitish Kumar’s charades could dent BJP’s prospects in the state if it decides to carry on with the alliance.
Kumar sees LJP as a threat and in a desperate counter-measure, has even brought Jitan Ram Manjhi into NDA’s fold to put a brake on Chirag Paswan’s aspirations. Nitish Kumar, whose only aim is to remain seated on CM chair for another five years, has tried to strengthen hold on Dalit vote bank by bringing HAM in the alliance as well as corner LJP. He has already overcapitalized the reclassification of some sections of the Dalit population as ‘MahaDalits’ and now the community has started moving to other parties.
However, Chirag Paswan has emerged as one of the most popular youth leaders of the state, with appeal cutting across the caste lines, in a state which is entrenched in caste politics; while the neighbouring UP opted for a change and voted for Hindutva.
LJP is steadily projecting Chirag Paswan as a viable alternative to Nitish’s insipid regime. The JDU leader, because of the TINA (there is no alternative) factor has been complacent about his chances and consequently has not even been making attempts to woo the voters. His body-language looks timid, and it seems like the ‘Sushasan Babu’ is going through the motions.
Chirag Paswan–the Son has risen on the political horizon of Bihar, and he is one of the very few leaders in the state that has shown some promise to usher the ragged state of Bihar into the mainstream, and he will do this by helping the saffron party to get the first CM of the state. After the election, it is very much possible that LJP decides to merge the party with BJP and Chirag Paswan becomes first BJP CM of the state.