Doubling India’s GDP will, however, require a meticulously crafted plan and unwavering business and consumer confidence. Private sector will play a major role. It is crucial to recognize industry as the primary driver and not just a contributor. Fostering an ecosystem that empowers domestic businesses to innovate and invest can create inclusive growth and job creation for India’s vast workforce. Innovative policies and a supportive environment can expand the scope of public-private partnerships and spearhead economic diversification across sectors. Critical turning points such as epoch-defining geopolitical realignments, the urgent need for climate and energy transition and the impact of new and emerging technologies, including Artificial Intelligence, will require extra attention. The three Ps – Policies, Partnerships, and Priorities will be the foundational pillars for achieving India’s 2030 vision. Key stakeholders, including the government, industry, academia, and civil society, will need to work collaboratively to drive the momentum needed to reach a $7 trillion economy.
I would emphasize few critical areas that will be pivotal for India’s transformational change over the next six years.
1. Focus on Growth and resilience: India saw off the worst—the scars of which are most visible at the bottom of the pyramid—of the covid-19 pandemic and subsequent economic shocks. Thereafter, it staged a smart recovery and is now projected to grow at a very impressive 8.2% in 2023-24. Not only did India survive these extremely difficult challenges, but also demonstrated a remarkable trait: resilience. India did not just bounce back. Instead it bounced forward. Going ahead, predictable Government policies that foster sustainable growth will be crucial, along with promoting innovation and leveraging India’s demographic dividend.
2. Digital Transformation and tech-driven growth: India’s digital economy is a major growth engine and is anticipated to surpass $ 1 trillion by 2030, with significant contributions from sectors like fintech, e-commerce, and digital services. India’s strong Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), featuring initiatives like Aadhaar, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), and the CoWIN platform, has greatly enhanced financial inclusion and sectoral efficiency. Coupled with extensive internet connectivity, widespread smartphone adoption, rapid urbanization, and the burgeoning gig economy, India’s e-commerce market has flourished. This growth has propelled India to become the third-largest fintech economy globally, just behind the USA and the UK. With the rapid adoption of 5G technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and block chain, India is set to increase productivity and innovation. India’s technology industry is on track to double its revenue to $500 billion by 2030. What it needs is more elbow room & flexibility.
3. Transformation in Agriculture: Modernizing agricultural practices is crucial for enhancing farm productivity and empowering rural communities. India is one of the world’s largest producers of staple crops such as rice, wheat, and pulses. India’s substantial agricultural output not only sustains its vast population but also contributes significantly to global food supplies. The adoption of advanced technologies such as precision farming, drone surveillance, and IOT (Internet of Things) can significantly improve crop management, reduce waste, and increase yields. Innovation in this sector will be vital for maintaining food security amidst climate change and other challenges.
4. Manufacturing Sector Expansion: India’s manufacturing sector is growing rapidly due to increased production capacity, supportive government policies. This growth is crucial for the country’s economic future. Currently, the sector contributes 17% to GDP and employs over 27.3 million workers. The government aims to boost this to 25% by 2025. India is on track to export goods worth $ 1 trillion by 2030, becoming a global manufacturing hub. With initiatives like the National Manufacturing Policy, Production Linked Incentives, and other Ease of Doing Business policies India is advancing towards Industry 4.0. 5. Energy Transition and Sustainability: India’s commitment to renewable energy is a key element of its economic strategy. The country aims to generate 50% of its energy from renewables by 2030, up from 20% in 2024. India has made significant strides in providing access to electricity and clean cooking gas, achieving nearly 100% household electrification by 2019. Currently, 40% of India’s installed energy capacity comes from renewable sources. Remarkably, India is the only G20 nation to have met its 2030 COP21 renewable energy targets nine years ahead of schedule, in 2021. Energy transition will serve as the cornerstone of India’s dedication to a sustainable and greener future.
6. Cooperation on Trade and Technology: In the last decade, India has signed 14 FTAs and six preferential pacts and is negotiating over 30 more. Such partnerships allow diversification of trade and, alleviate the impact of geopolitical tensions or economic downturns in specific regions and propel India’s global competitiveness. They indicate India’s keenness to be closely engaged in the global economy, signaling a pro-growth, pro-business, and pro-jobs approach. We need many more initiatives like these to integrate with the world.
7. Strategic Alliances: Lastly, I would re-emphasize a crucial aspect towards collaborating in global partnerships through plurilateral and multilateral frameworks like the QUAD or the IPEF, BRICS, SCO and bilateral initiatives such as iCET with the United States. These collaborations can effectively navigate geopolitical and geo-economic head-winds. By building such alliances, nations can counter protectionist tendencies, avoid overdependence on specific countries, and promote open, rules-based trade and investment systems. Furthermore, these partnerships can drive innovation, enhance security cooperation, and foster sustainable development, ensuring a resilient global economy which will act as a facilitator to India’s growth.
Achieving the $7 trillion GDP target by 2030 will require coordinated efforts from the government, industry, academia, and civil society. The Public Affairs Forum of India’s Annual Forum is a vital platform for discussing these strategies and building the consensus needed for successful implementation. The discussions and insights shared at the forum will be crucial for shaping the roadmap to India’s economic future .It will also highlight the crucial role of public affairs professionals as a bridge between various stakeholders.
Ajay Khanna Co-Founder, Public Affairs Forum of India (PAFI) Chairman Emeritus PAFI Annual Forum
(Views expressed are personal)