/https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5f40d58ba6ab821c24b150c8/0x0.jpg)
Jockey Luis Saez rides his horse Maximum Security as he competes in the 20 million US dollar race, … [+]
AFP via Getty Images
The summer racing season continues and Saratoga Race Course and Del Mar Racetrack combine for three “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challlenge Series races Saturday. The $500,000 Pacific Classic (G1) sends the winner to the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 7 at Keeneland.
The Pacific Classic is one of five graded stakes races Saturday on Del Mar’s biggest day of the summer meet. While there will be no spectors at the track, those races will generate a huge wagering handle.
The TVG Pacific Classic will be televised live on TVG as part of their comprehensive coverage of racing at Del Mar on Aug. 22.
The other two ‘Win and You’re In’ Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races Saturday are the $200,000 Del Mar Handicap (G2) and $400,000 Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga. The Del Mar Handicap awards the winner a fees-paid entry to the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Longines Turf and the Fourstardave winners goes to the $2 million Breeders’ Cup FanDuel Mile.
Guaranteed Tip Sheet (GTS) provides horse and race analysis and likes United (8/5) in the Del Mar Handicap with Proud Pedro (12/1) and Red King (8/1) top contenders at a price.
In the Fourstardave on turf, Uni (3/1) is the top pick having won 7-of-9 at the 1-mile distance and has the leading jockey/trainer combo of Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown. Four of the nine colts in the race are trained by Brown, and two others are GTS contenders in Raging Bull (5/2) and Without Parole (4/1), ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. The Ortiz brothers were tied for the Saratoga summer meet lead with 40 wins entering the weekend.
We’re just two weeks away from the 2020 Kentucky Derby, and America’s biggest horse race is building towards another record-betting year.
The 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic is Race 10 Saturday at 9:36 p.m. ET and 6:36 p.m. local Pacific Time “Where the Turf Meets the Surf.”
I reached out to handicappers Chris O’Rorke and Rich Bieglmeier at Guaranteed Tip Sheet for some insight and information you can bet on for the Pacific Classic.
They note the Equibase speed figures of the winners over the past decade. Those speed figures tell you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races – adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.
- Each of the past 10 Pacific Classic champs needed a mark of 110 or more to run into the winners’ circle.
- Nine of the past 10 registered a number of at least 100 in the two races prior to the Pacific Classic and seven of 10 accomplished the feat in the three races leading into the Classic.
- Six of the last 10 to wear the Pacific Classic crown won in their start before the Pacific Classic, and two others finished second.
Chris added, “The favorite has won five of the last seven Pacific Classic’s and hit the board in 8-of-10.”
Guaranteed Tip Sheet has additional insight and analsysis on the Pacific Classic horses, and it appears a premium will be placed on horses that possess an elevated level of early pace with a balanced energy distribution profile. That fits Maximum Security best. He’s won 9-of-11 starts and was disqualified in the Kentucky Derby after crossing the finish line first.
Handicappers love contests, and Saturday’s Pacific Classic Betting Challenge also awards five $10,000 entries to the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge Nov. 6-7 at Keeneland.
Higher Power won last year’s Pacific Classic by 5-lengths at 9/1 odds. That was a field of 10, and this year’s race comes up short on both runners and quality depth as not many connections wanted to take on Maximum Security. But that was also the case in 2017 when Collected (3/1) upset heavy favorite Arrogate (3/5). A month earlier, I was at Del Mar for the San Diego Handicap (G2) and witnessed a major upset when heavy favorite Arrogate (1/9) missed the money and finished a distant fourth of five runners to winner Accelerate (7/1).
Higher Power is winless in five races since last year’s Pacific Classic, but he’s hit the board in four of those races. Maximum Security won last months 1 1/16 mile San Diego Handicap by a nose over Midcourt with Higher Power more than six lengths back in third.
“The added distance in the 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic favors Maximum Security and hinders Midcourt in this rematch,” O’Rorke said.
Back in March, Midcourt was a heavy favorite in the 1 1/4 mile San Anita Handicap. He pressed the pacesetter into the stretch but came up short in the final furlong.
Maximum Security’s recent win was the first race under new trainer Bob Baffert after previous EPO trainer Jason Servis was caught and indicted for feeding his horses more than oats and hay. Servis had been administering performance enhancing drugs to ‘virtually all’ horses under his care.
So will Maximum Security race near the pace and run faster than the 107 Equibase speed figure in winning last months San Diego Handicap? That was his lowest speed rating in more than a year but also his first race in five months since winning the richest horse race in the world in Saudi Arabia.
Lonshot Mirinaque (10/1) makes his U.S. debut off a runner-up finish and has finished first or second in 8-of-9 starts. Dark Vader (12/1) won a 1-mile Allowance race last month at Del Mar with a 105 speed figure and hit the board in two previous graded stakes races with higher speed figures. Sharp Samurai (8/1) has hit the board in three straight graded stakes races including runner-up last month at Del Mar making up ground on winner United while posting a high 118 speed figure.
Many bettors will add Maximum Security to their horizontal bets and Late Pick 5 while trying to hit a straight exacta. While an upset is not as likely, wagering on a horse that could go off at 2/5 odds in a six horse field is not the most prudent play.
You can bet on it.