Ever since June 4, when the Lok Sabha results from Uttar Pradesh shocked the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — as the party won 36 seats compared to the Opposition’s 43 — it was clear that the party is up for a bumpy ride in the state. In comparison to the butter smooth ride so far, bickering and challenges were bound to come up. Nearly one and a half months after June 4 — the result day — it is clear that all is not well in Uttar Pradesh for the BJP.
BJP General Secretary (Organisation) BL Santosh sat with the state unit to find out what went wrong, state unit president Bhupendra Chaudhary has offered to resign and Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya has met party President JP Nadda. For the first time, dissent is being made heard over alleged ‘thakurvaad’. Probably the first time, that government decisions like a demolition drive in Lucknow are being halted sensing its political cost.
In Uttar Pradesh, the wind of change is blowing. While top party sources insist that Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath continues to enjoy the same trust of the party top guns as he used to, changes may result in a cabinet overhaul, a new party chief in the state, new caste calculations in the organisation and Yogi cabinet and a more ‘understanding’ approach to policy implementations.
This UP rumbling did not happen in a day. It started by 12 in the noon on June 4 when BJP’s tally from Uttar Pradesh was evident. Like all events of political change, it showed its signs from the very beginning leading up to Maurya’s aggressive speech at the UP BJP working committee meeting in Lucknow.
Here are the 5 events that may force the BJP to change its gear in UP, running up to the ten bypolls and later the 2027 assembly election.
RAMESH MISHRA’s WARNING
A BJP MLA issued a video reaction warning the party why it may be tough for the BJP to come back in 2027. He even demanded the intervention of BJP’s central leadership — something that was unheard in the Yogi era, at least before June 4.
Wearing a casual t-shirt and an even casual smile, Badlapur MLA Ramesh Mishra recently recorded a video reaction that has gone viral ever since. He can be heard saying, “As things stand today, the way PDA (Pichra-Dalit-Alsankyak or minority — a social engineering of the SP) is being discussed today and the way Samajwadi Party has been able to create a false narrative among the public at large, BJP is not in a great position as of today. The situation can improve but for that, the central leadership has to take big decisions and focus on the UP election. Each and every cadre of the BJP has to dedicatedly be involved. It is only then that we will be in a position to form government again in 2027. In today’s situation, it is not happening.”
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav shared the video on official social media handles claiming PDA’s popularity. SP claimed the PDA constitutes 85-90 per cent of the population.
समाजवादी पार्टी की ‘PDA’ की नीति:– आम जनता को उसका हक़ दिलवानेवाली– आम जनता का कल्याण करनेवाली– शोषण-उत्पीड़न से आम जनता की रक्षा करनेवाली– संविधान-आरक्षण को बचानेवाली– पिछड़े-दलितों-अल्पसंख्यकों-आदिवासियों-आधी आबादी और अगड़ों में भी उत्पीड़ितों को प्रभुत्ववादियों… pic.twitter.com/dTVzMDpk3t
— Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh) July 13, 2024
As this video went viral, Mishra said his views were ‘distorted’. But the fact that an MLA can predict doomsday in 2027 and demand a ‘big decision’ from top leadership was a sign that things are changing in UP politics.
EX-MINISTER’S CORRUPTION CHARGE
Ramesh Mishra was not an aberration. Former Minister Rajendra Pratap Singh, better known as Moti Singh, went a step further to label corruption charges at police station levels. Calling it unprecedented, Singh said at a BJP event, “I don’t have any hesitation in saying this that in my 42 years of political career, I could not think of or see such level of corruption at police stations and tehsils. This is unimaginable.” He went on to cite instances of alleged police excesses and urged the BJP cadres to not lose dignity. All these were coming from a former Yogi government minister at a BJP event with party cadres breaking out in loud claps. The signs were too obvious — things are changing in UP politics.
Like in Mishra’s case, Akhilesh Yadav used this attack of a BJP insider to target the state government. He asked what more evidence does it take than BJP leaders themselves talking about such alleged corruption.
SOM VS BALYAN IN THE JAT LAND
Probably the first indication of what’s in store for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh came from the Jat land of Muzaffarnagar of West UP soon after the results came in.
BJP candidate and former union minister Sanjeev Balyan, who faced defeat from the Muzaffarnagar seat in the Lok Sabha elections, has pointed fingers at former BJP MLA from Sardhana Sangeet Som, with the latter hitting back. The political ping-pong went on for a while.
After Balyan also lost from the Sardhana area (by 45 votes), which is under the supervision of former MLA Sangeet Som, he snapped when he was asked about Som: “I believe there should have been an inquiry. There are those who have brazenly helped the Samajwadi Party but are occupying high posts here (in the BJP) and availing facilities too. I would request the party leadership to take cognisance of the matter.” He also said the reason for the BJP’s dismal performance in the state was due to “Jaichands” — a reference for traitors.
It was clear that Balyan was training his guns at Som, who also refused to campaign for the now-defeated MP. In a haste, he called a press conference to counter Balyan. “I was in charge of Sardhana assembly constituency of Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha seat and we fared quite well. He lost by a much bigger margin in the Budhana and Charthawal constituency area. He (Balyan) should introspect,” said Som. He also labelled allegations of corruption against Balyan.
The BJP-dominated Jat land turned into a political blame game soon after June 4.
LOCAL LEADERS JOIN IN
If a former Minister or a sitting MLA’s charge wasn’t enough, here’s a local leader who joined the chorus by expressing frustration at inner party rivalry, a cost the BJP had to bear in the Lok Sabha election.
In a BJP meeting in Prayagraj, the President of the Yamunapar area Vinod Prajapati also jumped in to express frustration at inner-party quarrels during the election that he had to witness. He said in the meeting that he and his men weren’t fighting the Samajwadi Party but a section of the BJP itself, suggesting how one section worked to defeat BJP.
THE MAURYA FACTOR
But what seemed to have made it abundantly clear is one statement of UP Dy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya when he publicly called ‘organisation’ to be bigger than ‘government’. Where he said it was more important than what he said. When Keshav Maurya made the statement, the stage at the BJP UP Working Committee meeting was graced by prominent leaders from the party’s top leadership.
During a one-day state working committee meeting of the BJP, he emphasised that the party’s structure and its cadre will always hold greater importance than the government. He went on to add, all ministers, MLAs, and public representatives, should respect party workers and ensure their dignity is upheld. Interestingly, before he became a Dy CM, he was the state unit Chief of BJP. Later, a line in his cryptic tweet fueled more speculation that read, ‘…No one is bigger than the organisation, the workers are the pride…’
Rumours of discord between CM Adityanath and his Deputy KP Maurya began after the latter skipped multiple cabinet meetings chaired by the Chief Minister in the last one month. The CM met ministers on Wednesday over the 10 upcoming by-elections but both the deputy chief ministers — Maurya and Brijesh Pathak — were missing from the meeting.