For a splash of green

At COP26, India announced its ambition to become a net-zero emitter by 2070 – an important milestone in the fight against climate change. Despite low per-capita emissions (1.8 tonnes CO2), India is the third-largest emitter globally, emitting a net 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) every year as of 2019. The bulk of these emissions (about 70%) are from six sectors: power, steel, automotive, aviation, cement and agriculture.

In this report, we propose more than 100 decarbonisation levers across these key sectors and take a deeper look at four cross-cutting decarbonisation opportunities: green hydrogen; carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS); natural climate solutions; and material circularity.

We modelled outcomes on India’s net-zero journey along two scenarios: first, the current line-of-sight (LoS) scenario with current (and announced) policies and foreseeable technology adoption; and second, the accelerated scenario with far-reaching policies like carbon pricing and accelerated technology adoption, including technologies like CCUS. Our analysis shows that the benefits of a well-planned, orderly, accelerated transition could outweigh the downsides, given India’s growth outlook.

India has the potential to create 287 gigatonnes of carbon space for the world…. In the LoS scenario, India could reduce annual emissions from a historical trajectory of 11.8 GtCO2e to 1.9 GtCO2e by 2070, a 90% reduction in economic emissions intensity compared with 2019. It can reach 0.4 GtCO2e by 2050 in the accelerated scenario, with a potential to get to its net-zero-by-2070 commitment through new technology developments (such as direct air capture) over the next few decades.

From ‘Decarbonising India: Charting a Pathway for Sustainable Growth’, McKinsey & Co