UConn players celebrate after the 82-54 win against Gonzaga of an Elite 8 college basketball game in … [+]
The Final Four is set following more magnificent March Madness moments in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. Some surprise teams have reached the Final Four, and the betting lines were posted by the leading online sportsbooks right after Miami completed their rally to win and send a third team to their first Final Four. Connecticut is now the favorite to cut down the nets in Houston, and the Huskies are the only team in this remaining field to have previously played in a Final Four.
There has been record betting during the 2023 NCAA Tournament, and the sportsbooks have had a monster March Madness.
“Tournament results have been written like a script by the sportsbooks regardless of results going forward,” BetMGM Vice President of Trading said before Sunday’s Elite Eight games.
The No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic Owls odds to win the national championship were as high as 300/1 to win prior to the 2023 NCAA Tournament, and the San Diego State Aztecs were as high as 85/1. The Miami Hurricanes reached 75/1 and Connecticut Huskies had odds as high as 20/1 to win the NCAA Tournament and national championship.
San Diego State guard Matt Bradley celebrates after a Elite 8 college basketball game between … [+]
Millions of brackets have been busted on the road to the Final Four. Regardless of who wins the national championship, more dreams have been realized in this year’s Big Dance and path to the Final Four.
“You picture the belief when you sleep, you picture the belief when you work out, and you hope that the dream comes true,” said Nathan Mensah, San Diego State’s 6-foot-10 senior center. “Finally that dream came true for us.”
NCAA Tournament – Updated Bracket, Schedules and Scores
Final Four Matchups and Odds
Basketball odds and futures from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change. That includes on props and live betting, which is most popular during March Madness.
The Final Four is at NRG Stadium in Houston. Watch the games on CBS or stream online with the games scheduled to tip off at 6:09 p.m. ET and 8:49 p.m. ET.
Saturday, April 1
- No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs No. 5 San Diego State (-1.5) | Total: 131.5
- No. 5 Miami vs No. 4 Connecticut (-5.5) | Total: 149.5 (opened -4.5)
Monday, April 3
There are many ways to bet these games beyond the spread, total and moneyline. Halftime betting, prop bets including player props will be popular with live betting generating a greater percentage of the sportsbooks handle.
Head coaches and teams 2023 records
- Florida Atlantic (35-3) – Dusty May, 5th year
- San Diego State (31-6) – Brian Dutcher, 6th year
- Dan Hurley (29-8) – Connecticut, 5th year
- Jim Larranaga (29-7) – Miami, 12th year
Only twice since 1998 has the NCAA Tournament winner had more than seven losses in a season. Both times it was UCONN (2011, 2014), and the 2023 Huskies will try to make it a trifecta to become the third team in the last 25 years to win the national championship with more than seven losses.
NCAA Tournament Stats, Facts and Betting Figures
A stat profile of a NCAA Tournament winner and national champion is that 19 of the last 20 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in Ken Pom’s offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency rankings. Only Connecticut remains of the five NCAA Tournament teams that fit the profile.
Connecticut (-125) is now the favorite to win the national championship with adjusted odds followed by San Diego State (+360), Miami (+490) and Florida Atlantic (+600), per odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here are the college basketball adjusted efficiency rankings for each of the Final Four teams, according to KenPom (from 363 NCAA teams).
- Connecticut: Offense 3, Defense 12
- Texas: Offense 15, Defense 10
- Florida Atlantic: Offense 25, Defense 29
- San Diego State: Offense 75, Defense 4
Through four NCAA Tournament games, here are each teams stats – Points per Game, Offense and Defense Field Goal shooting and 3-point shooting, Positive Rebounding Margin.
Final Four
- Favorites off a straight up (SU) underdog win are 4-1 ATS (San Diego State)
- Teams who scored 65 or less points in Elite 8 round are 9-3-1 ATS (San Diego State)
- Big East teams are 6-1 ATS the last 12 years (UCONN)
- In the championship game, No. 5 or worse seeds are 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS (Will apply to either FAU and SDSU)
- Teams who scored 80 or more points in the Final 4 round are 5-1 ATS
Sportsbook betting data will be provided in the week ahead leading up to the Final Four and more bets pile in on the big games. As I advised during my March Madness appearance on CBS News last week, bet responsibly with your head and not over it.
The Final Four has been held at NRG Stadium in Houston two other times in 2016 and 2011 (Reliant Stadium, now NRG). Fans might remember the shooting and scoring struggles from the ugly 2011 championship when No. 3 UCONN beat No. 8 Butler 53-41. The two teams combined to miss 88 shots that night. The Final Four games that year were lower scoring as well with UCONN beating No. 4 Kentucky 56-55 and Butler beating No. 11 VCU 70-62.
Sitelines contribute to shooting struggles when the basketball floor is placed in the middle of the dome stadium like it will be for the 2023 Final Four. The farther back the backdrop, the harder it is to adjust your eyes.
But in Villanova’s dominant run to the Final Four and 2016 championship at NRG Stadium, the No. 2 Seed Wildcats smashed the No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners 95-51 while No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels stuck in to the No. 10 Syracuse Orange 83-66. Villanova won the championship over North Carolina 77-74, so shooting and scoring was not an issue for those two teams in the Final Four.
It’s time for the teams to man-up in the Final Four as they celebrate and prepare for college basketball’s biggest stage. All eyes of college basketball fans and bettors are now on Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Connecticut and Miami.
You can bet on it.