The more aggressive the effort, the bigger the gains – as are the investments required. Achieving net-zero by 2070 requires an investment of $10 trillion. This is projected to boost GDP by 4.3% in 2036. A 2050 target that boosts GDP by 7.3% by 2032 will require $13.5 trillion. The report reaffirms India’s position of the criticality of international support for the transition. With global investment funding the transition, the government could divert domestic resources to developmental activities, reskilling for the low-carbon economy and ensuring a just transition.
The report demonstrates the benefits of front-loading the transition rather than spreading it over half a century. The decisions and trade-offs are political. So, does India see the transition as an opportunity and tool to grow its economy to emerge as a major player in a decarbonising world? Or does it see decarbonisation as a project that comes second to growing the economy? Once that decision is taken, the rest is detail.
Regulatory interventions such as amendments to the Energy Conservation Act and the Electricity Act demonstrate serious intent. But refusal to engage in a coal phase-out sends out mixed signals. India needs a vision, plan and milestones across all of government-society-economy to leverage the transition for sustained and sustainable growth.