Instant surveys were unanimous that Harris was the winner. But there’s no evidence the Democratic candidate will benefit enough to move the needle. What she did accomplish was to reassure her own base that they had a candidate who was sound of mind and body. A few independent voters, a shrinking cohort in US politics, may also be persuaded to plump for her. Nearly a third of voters had indicated they wanted to know more about her.
Harris is leading ever so slightly in the polls taken before the summit. That is the popular vote. What matters in a US presidential election is securing the electoral college, in other words, majority of the 6-7 swing states. Of the last dozen polls in the US, those in August all gave a slight edge to Harris in the popular vote. Of the last five polls, all in September, Trump leads in two, and one is a tie.
The excitement caused by Harris’ surprise candidacy, and the Democratic Party convention has worn off. This week’s debate could have reversed this – but probably won’t.
Harris and Trump had a set of pre-selected attack points. Trump was broadly on message. Immigration and migrant crimes were his first, second and third choice, and no chance was missed to raise the issue – irrespective of the question asked and doubts about the claims of ‘pet-eating’.
After that came inflation and a general attempt to paint Harris with a Biden brush. His aides were reportedly worried that ‘angry Trump’, rather than ‘happy Trump’, would show up at the podium, and they would have to clean up the mess afterwards. In the end, Trump’s brow darkened a few times when Harris claimed no one showed up for Trump rallies and world leaders made fun of him. She deliberately provoked him to arouse his dark side. The Trump Express rocked, but just about stayed on the rails.Harris’ favourite topic was abortion, and some exaggerated claims that she had plans for the economy. In truth, her team had posted a few basic policy papers just days before the debate. She can be excused, given her candidacy was a late bolt from the blue. But she was able to avoid saying anything that Republicans could seize on and argue she was, as Trump claimed, ‘Venezuela on steroids’. A recent poll showed that 47% of voters saw her as ‘too liberal’ – partly a consequence of a sustained Republican campaign.All of this reflects what the polls have shown. Trump has an 8-9-point lead among voters when it comes to his position on illegal immigration, the Gaza conflict and, most damagingly for Democrats, inflation and the economy. Harris has a solid 15-16 point lead on abortion and race, and 10 points on healthcare. Both played to their strengths.
Trump remained true to himself by confusing late-term abortion with postnatal murder. But his Chicken a la Kyiv refusal to say Ukrainian victory was in the US interest was a reminder about the hold Vladimir Putin has over the American far right.
One running battle was whether Harris supported a ban on fracking. Trump said yes, she said no. Several times. Neither cares a frack about hydrocarbon production. It was all about winning the state of Pennsylvania, a major energy state and arguably the most crucial of the swing states, and the one where the two are polling the exact same number.
The campaign is evenly poised. Though the numbers show him trailing slightly, Trump has a small advantage. As the electoral college’s structure (think: small red states) gives Republicans an advantage, Trump has to only win 2-3 of the swing states, while Harris has to win many more of them. In the past general elections, Trump won more votes than the surveys indicated. The hidden Trump voter was not evident during the Republican primary race. The Republican has surprisingly been able to position himself as the centrist voter – even a quarter of Democrats think he’s a moderate.
Unsurprisingly, both candidates want a rematch given how close the race has become. What does seem increasingly unlikely, given that it will be won by a nose – and with all the monkeying around that has happened with the election machinery of many state governments – is the US election ending as civilly as the opening handshake of Tuesday’s TV debate. There will be fireworks before and after the November 5 voting.