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Observers say Mamata Banerjee will gear up for the 2026 West Bengal assembly polls from the very first day of 2025
West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. (File pic/PTI)
The year did not start well for the Trinamool Congress (TMC). In the first week of January, when an Enforcement Directorate (ED) team visited the house of TMC strongman Shahjahan Sheikh in West Bengal’s Sandeshkhali, it was attacked. Some days later, local villagers started protesting there, complaining about the highhandedness of Shahjahan, who was seen by many as the “uncrowned king” of Sandeshkhali. They also came up with testimonies of his torture. The allegation was that he, along with his close aides, transferred farming land to fisheries by force. Some women also complained that his close associates’ behaviour with them was objectionable.
This was a big embarrassment for Bengal’s ruling TMC. The party was facing serious questions as Shahjahan and his close associates were all part of TMC. The local women’s protest became huge and soon turned into a national issue. In the April-June Lok Sabha polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party made a woman from Sandeshkhali, Rekha Patra (who claimed that she was tortured), a candidate for the area’s constituency of Basirhat.
Sandeshkhali made national headlines for all the wrong reasons. Central teams, the Women’s Commission, and the SC/ST Commission all arrived. Finally, the case was handed over to the CBI under court direction.
Naturally, the big question was, would it have an effect on the Bengal Lok Sabha polls?
Apparently not. The BJP’s tally in the state, in fact, went down, and Mamata Banerjee’s haul shot up to 29 in the Lok Sabha polls. The TMC won the Basirhat constituency by more than 300,000 votes. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee stated that Sandeshkhali had given an answer to the “vicious campaign” that was going on against Trinamool.
After the election results, the TMC saw that it had not done well in urban areas. The party was trying to organise and go for a major revamp. Then the brutal rape and murder of a young doctor at Kolkata’s RG Kar Hospital in August came as a massive jolt. The incident at a government medical college in the state capital became a huge embarrassment for the TMC and its government. Police handling of the case received flak and resulted in nationwide protests. The Supreme Court took suo moto cognisance of the case and handed it over to the Central Bureau of Investigation. Stories of health syndicates and a culture of threat began to emerge. The CBI was handed over the corruption case too. Sandip Ghosh, former principal of the medical college and hospital, was arrested on corruption charges. Then a case of conspiracy pertaining to the rape and murder was also slapped on him. The station house officer (SHO) of Tala Thana was also arrested by the CBI, stating that he was part of a larger conspiracy.
Bengal saw protests from Cooch Behar to Kakdwip. On August 14, the RG Kar Hospital building was vandalised, with the government again receiving flak. Medical students continued to cease work and then went on a hunger strike. The movement also gained traction nationwide. Mamata removed the commissioner of police from his post. She went to the doctors and tried to win them over. The CM also said that she was ready to resign in this situation. After much deliberation, the students sat with her in her home. Most of their demands were accepted.
Observers said that for the first time in her life, Mamata took one step back. The firebrand leader tried to pacify the doctors in every way. She removed health department officials and other important functionaries. Experts stated that the medical students took out a leaf from Mamata’s playbook and pushed her government on the back foot. After all this, the students ended their hunger strike.
There was speculation that six bypolls were to be held and the RG Kar Hospital case might have an impact. While most of the seats were in villages, Naihati, an urban area, was also to have polls. However, the TMC won all the seats with big margins.
Mamata as INDIA bloc boss?
The Congress saw electoral losses in Haryana and Maharashtra, while even after two big hiccups, Mamata’s popularity remained the same, and she won the poll battles. This led TMC leaders to question the Congress’s leadership in the opposition INDIA bloc and they started proposing Mamata’s name as the convener. Trinamool MP Kalyan Banerjee said Mamata should be the leader of INDIA and others followed.
Amid all this, Mamata Banerjee in an interview with News18 stated that the INDIA bloc was her idea and she could look after it from Bengal. There were ripples in the opposition camp. Veterans like Sharad Pawar and Lalu Prasad Yadav said “Didi” could lead the alliance. So Mamata looks set to end 2024 on a high. And, observers say, she will gear up for the 2026 West Bengal assembly polls from the very first day of 2025.
Mamata magic or opposition’s failure?
Kunal Ghosh, general secretary of TMC, told News18, “We have a connection with the public always, and that’s what matters at the end of the day. So Mamata Banerjee is for the people, by the people, and of the people. There have been deliberate attempts to defame TMC and the government in every way, but truth prevails.”
While the TMC has the people’s mandate, many believe that the opposition should have been more active. Dilip Ghosh, former BJP state president, told News18, “Opposition activity could not reach the common people; that’s true; they are not relying on us. Opposition political parties are failing to do their duties; that’s the reason why apolitical movements gained more momentum; this is concerning for us. Even our old party workers are now not ready to take risks. Mamata has tactfully handled things; that’s why people had no other alternative but to vote for her. We have to really work on this. This ‘everything is good’ is not going on in Bengal.”
BJP leader Agnimitra Paul has a different take. Speaking to News18, she said, “We cannot say Sandeshkhali, RG Kar did not have any effect. In Sandeshkhali, we won the assembly seat, though we lost the Lok Sabha seat, so finally, it was a defeat. But we have taken a lead in the main place. Moreover, in by-elections, people always vote for the ruler. See, here people are living in fear; polls do not take place. We are going for a membership drive; there too, we are seeing people are afraid. We hope that people will understand, come out of fear, and vote out Mamata in 2026.”
The Left and Congress also failed to put up any fight in front of the TMC. That too is a concern for the opposition.
Political analyst Sambit Pal, associate professor at MIT ADT University in Pune, said, “Mamata Banerjee has no electoral opposition on par with her in Bengal as of now. There have been multiple allegations of corruption, atrocities, misgovernance, and malpractices by her government and the party. Nothing has cost her electorally. Yes, the people’s spontaneous protest during the RG Kar Hospital rape and murder incident indeed pushed her to the brink. She had to step back. But the by-election results showed she is unparalleled in electoral politics. Rather, she has to set her house in order with an apparent parallel source of power in TMC originating from Abhishek Banerjee. It is confusing for her party workers and leaders. Having said that, she has realised that before the 2026 assembly elections, she needs another image makeover as a leader, and she will be working on that in 2025. Bidding for the leadership of INDIA is just an act towards it.”
2025, therefore, is going to be a very significant year for Mamata as the 2026 Bengal assembly polls will be closer. She is trying to prepare already. When TMC goes for votes in 2026, it will be facing 15 years of anti-incumbency, which is no mean challenge. Experts also say that it’s not that everything is fine with the Bengal government and TMC. Rather, there is a constant tussle between seniors and juniors. But one thing is clear: it’s Didi who still triumphs on “Dadagiri” in Bengal.