Del Mar Best Bets For Shared Belief Stakes

The final four qualifying points races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby conclude over the next two weeks. Saturday by the sea is the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar.

In addition there are four “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races this weekend including the Bing Crosby (G1) Saturday and Clement L. Hirsch (G1) Sunday at Del Mar. The Whitney Stakes (G1) Saturday at Saratoga features three top Thoroughbreds that raced in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

The Shared Belief Stakes was added to the Derby trail with the 2020 Kentucky Derby rescheduled to Sept. 5 due to the coronavirus crisis. The Shared Belief features one of the Kentucky Derby betting favorites, Honor A. P. (8/5), who is a slight favorite in Race 2 Saturday. His biggest challengers are two undefeated Bob Baffert-trained sophomores, Uncle Chuck (9/5) and Cezanne (7/2). Both those late developing 3-year-olds are looking to win and earn their spot into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Baffert’s other runner in the Shared Belief is Thousand Words (8/1), who was a well-beaten runner-up to Uncle Chuck in the July 4 Los Alamitos Derby. But Thousand Words looks like he’s already qualified for the Kentucky Derby with 33 points and No. 18 on the Derby points leaderboard. Anneau d’Or (8/1) is also running in the Shared Belief and on the Derby bubble with 32 points. Uncle Chuck (20 points) needs a top-2 finish and Cezanne must win the Shared Belief to earn enough points to make the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. The top four finishers earn Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5).

Handicapper Chris O’Rorke passed along some insight and analysis from the the Guaranteed Tip Sheet.

“We see it as a three-horse race between Honor A. P., Uncle Chuck and Cezanne. We are going to lean toward the $3.65 million dollar horse Cezanne. He ran a blazing fast 1 mile race in winning an Allowance race a month ago at Los Alamitos.”

Cezanne is sired by the great Curlin, who hit the board in all three Triple Crown races winning the Preakness Stakes on his way to the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic victory.

Cezanne benefits from the 2020 Kentucky Derby being pushed back and rescheduled for Sept. 5. He’s 2-for-2 in his career, but is clearly on an upward trajectory as he makes his stakes debut for Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert.

“He’s shown us he’s a top horse,” Baffert said before Cezaenne won his last race. Upon victory, Baffert added, “He’s got a ways to go, but he’s improving.”

Cezanne needs to win the Shared Belief to get a shot to Run for the Roses in the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

The other significant race Saturday at Del Mar is the $250,000 Bing Crosby Stakes (G1). That 6 furlong race awards a fees-paid invitation to the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The Bing Crosby is Race 10 and part of a $147,118 Pick Six Carryover that starts in Race 6 and will generate more online wagering interest and a potential big payoff and score.

With P R Radio Star and favorite McKinzie now scratched from the Bing Crosby, Guaranteed Tip Sheet looks towards Fashionably Fast (7/2) and Collusion Illusion (9/2) to cash in with some value on Law Abidin Citizen (8/1). Fashionably Fast is 3-for-3 over the main track at Del Mar the past year and has won six of his last seven starts with a runner-up finish to heavy favorite McKinzie in June’s Triple Bend Stakes (G2) while posting a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure.

Sunday at picturesque Del Mar is another “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series prep race with the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) winner gaining a fees-paid entry to the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff Nov. 7 at Keeneland. The Clement L. Hirsch is the premier offering at the Del Mar summer stand for older fillies and mares.

But Saturday’s Race 2 Road to the Kentucky Derby winner in the 1 1/16 mile Shared Belief Stakes sets the pace for an outstanding weekend of racing “Where the Turf Meets the Surf” at Del Mar.

You can bet on it.