CINCINNATI, OHIO – JANUARY 02: Ja’Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals makes a 18-yard catch for … [+]
The Week 13 NFL schedule continues Sunday after Thursday’s kickoff saw the Buffalo Bills improve to 9-3 this season with a 24-10 road win over the New England Patriots (6-6). Now two other AFC heavyweights lead the Week 13 odds and betting card in a key match-up between the AFC leading Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) and AFC North co-leaders Cincinnati Bengals (7-4).
- Kansas City (-2.5) at Cincinnati – Game total 52.5 points
Since starting the season 0-2, the Bengals are on a 7-2 straight up (SU) and 8-1 against the spread (ATS) run. The Bengals have been an underdog just once this season, and lost to the Baltimore Ravens 19-17 on a last second field goal. Cincinnati covered the point spread as a 3-point underdog.
The Chiefs enter with five straight wins, but just 1-3-1 ATS. Kansas City has played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, and six of their last eight opponents made the playoffs last season. The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in those games with their only loss to the Buffalo Bills, 24-20.
The Chiefs are also 20-4 SU in their last 24 games including playoffs, and two of those losses were to the Bengals.
“The Chiefs have won five in a row, and the public sees that,” Caesars Sportsbook Assistant Director of Trading Adam Pullen said. “The Chiefs are already a big public team too. But the Bengals seem to be rounding back into form after that 0-2 start. If last year’s results are anything to go by, it’s going to be a real close game and the spread is reflective of that. I wouldn’t be surprised if this line goes lower, but I don’t think we’re going to see this back up at 3. It seems closer to a pick to me, and it’s the standout game of the weekend.”
The Bengals beat the Chiefs twice last season including in the AFC Championship Game 27-24 in overtime after trailing 21-3 late in the first half.
“There is no way Joe Burrow is winning this game for a third straight time against Patrick Mahomes.” – James Jones
5 Chiefs-Bengals storylines including Ja’Marr Chase’s return
While RB Joe Mixon remains in concussion protocol and is questionable Sunday, Ja’Marr Chase is expected to play and return to live action. Chase missed the last four games due to a hairline hip fracture suffered in the Atlanta game on Oct. 23.
Football Outsiders DVOA
According to Football Outsiders DVOA, the Chiefs defense ranks No. 18 in total DVOA and Bengals No. 12. The Chiefs pass defense DVOA is No. 18 and Bengals No. 9. The weighted DVOA defense is Chiefs No. 19 and Bengals No. 13, which gives recent games more weight than games early in the season. On offense, the Chiefs are No. 1 in total and weighted DVOA and No. 2 pass DVOA (No. 19 rush). The Bengals offense is No. 7 total DVOA and No. 4 weighted, and No. 9 pass DVOA (No. 4 rush).
Chiefs-Bengals Schedules and QB Stats
The Chiefs five remaining games after the Bengals include four games against teams with losing records – Texans, Raiders and Broncos twice. Kansas City holds the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the AFC again.
The Bengals closing schedule is tougher with the Browns and then road games at Tampa Bay and New England. Cincinnati’s final two games in January are at home against the Bills and Ravens, which may decide the AFC North champion with the Bengals and Ravens currently tied on top at 7-4.
The Playbook Sports newsletter notes this incredible stat: The Kansas City Chiefs are 40-7 SU in Patrick Mahomes’ NFL starts from November out. Mahomes is also 26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December.
Pro Football Focus Offensive Line Rankings: Chiefs No. 2 and Bengals No. 16
In the Chiefs last six games, Mahomes has passed for over 300 yards in each contest including more than 420 yards twice. He has 14 TD passes, 1 rushing TD, but 6 INT’s over that stretch. For the season, Mahomes has completed 66.1% of his passes for 3,585 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs and zero lost fumbles. Mahomes is also 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in starts during November and December when not favored by more than 3 points.
Joe Burrow has completed 68.2% of his passes for 3,160 yards, 23 TD’s, 8 INT’s and 2 lost fumbles. The Bengals have only played four home games and seven road games. Burrow has thrown for 338, 287, 481 and 206 yards in those home games.
Chiefs vs Bengals Passing yards props at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Mahomes: over/under 302.5 yards
- Burrow: over/under 292.5 yards
KANSAS CITY, MO – JANUARY 30: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals hugs Patrick Mahomes #15 of … [+]
Mahomes ranks No. 1 for quarterbacks in Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) – and Burrow’s recent play despite not having WR Ja’Marr Chase has moved him into the top top DYAR.
Other games drawing more betting interest at the leading U.S. sportsbooks include four division games Sunday plus another on Monday Night Football: (favorites in parentheses, and NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook).
- Washington (-2) at New York Giants – total 40.5
- Green Bay (-3.5) at Chicago – total 44.5
- Seattle (-7) at Los Angeles Rams – total 40.5
- Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas (-2.5) – total 49.5
- New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-3.5) – total 40.5, Monday
The Buccaneers (5-6) lead the NFC South despite a losing record. Both the Saints (4-8 ATS) and Bucs (3-7-1 ATS) are also burning bettors money with two of the worst ATS records this season. They join big underachievers LA Rams (2-7-2 ATS), Denver Broncos (3-8 ATS) and Green Bay Packers (4-8 ATS).
Week 13 Spreads and Betting Splits
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Types of bets and how to read the odds
The Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) are the biggest favorite this week at home against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. The other big favorite is the Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) at home against the Denver Broncos.
The Dallas defense pass rush leads the NFL with an 11.5% sack rate.
Three other games involve match-ups between playoff teams if the playoffs started this week:
- New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
- Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
- Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
The other two games are near pick ‘em between out of playoff contention teams.
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons
And lets not forget the game that will have the most rabid fans despite the Houston Texans sporting the worst record in the NFL. Former Texans troubled QB Deshaun Watson makes his starting debut for the Cleveland Browns (-7.5) at Houston in his first game in nearly two years after serving a suspension for a laundry list of sexual assault allegations and the subsequently settled civil suits.
The Browns (4-7) at Texans (1-9-1) game will have more viewers than normal as an interesting setting in Houston for Deshaun Watson’s return to the NFL.
“A lot of people will be watching this game, and hopefully we put our best effort we’ve had all year,” Texans head coach Lovie Smith said.
As my sports betting colleague Sherwood notes in his Browns-Texans game analysis, “This is the biggest game Houston will play this season and it’s not close. This is the Texans’ Super Bowl.”
It’s Week 13 of the 2022 season with both a most meaningful game between the Chiefs and Bengals along with a black-eye day for the NFL in Houston between the Browns and Texans.
You can bet on it.