Close on the heels of the Opposition combine announcing that after the Patna meeting, the second conclave will be held in Bengaluru on July 17-18 in Bengaluru, NDA has also decided to meet in the national capital next week. There is a lot of interest in both the meetings after the split in NCP with Sharad Pawar faction playing a key role in the Opposition confabulations and his nephew Ajit Pawar leading the rebel camp in the NDA summit.
Joining forces has become a must for the anti-BJP regional parties as they are fast losing their political clout in Parliament due to the massive sway of the saffron party led NDA. The contours of the Opposition alliance is expected to take a more concrete shape in the July 17-18 meeting.
While Sharad Pawar- who is set to be entrusted with the key task of formulating the Common Minimum Program- is now a weakened force, he may still play a decisive role in forging Opposition unity and fighting more aggressively against the NDA. He also has to secure the future of his party and his daughter Supriya Sule.
The Opposition has claimed the number of political parties that are likely to attend the Bengaluru meet would touch 24, not an insignificant jump from 16 that participated in the Patna summit.
With BJP as the common foe, the biggest challenge for these regional parties will be to reach an understanding on seat sharing with other opposition parties active on their turf. The ED raids on many opposition leaders may also act as a binding factor.As for the ruling NDA, though there are strong signals that Narendra Modi is well-placed to lead it into a third term at the Centre, one cannot discard the conventional probability of anti-incumbency and voter fatigue with the saffron party. India has one of the highest anti-incumbencies among democracies in the world. Modi continues to be the most popular leader and the best bet for BJP to get votes, but a desperate opposition is snapping at its heels.In 2019, the Balakot strike gave a big push to the BJP’s poll prospects, leading to a huge majority and making allies redundant. In the 2024 elections, the Ram temple at Ayodhya and the debate over Uniform Civil Code will play a vital role in BJP’s performance. However, with high unemployment, rising food and fuel inflation, anger in some states with the BJP over its policies and performance of its leaders the battle is not easy for the ruling dispensation. The party has also lost several state elections and one cannot fully rule out some impact of this in the Lok Sabha polls despite Modi’s charisma.
This has led BJP to look towards regional parties again. The NDA which had been losing members in direct proportion to the growth of the BJP, is now in revival mode. Many erstwhile members are in the process of ghar-wapsi. The break-up of NCP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra is a substantial boost to the NDA as the state has 48 seats, the second highest after Uttar Pradesh.
TDP is set to return to the NDA fold. BJP needs an ally in Andhra Pradesh while Chandrababu Naidu wants his party to have a stake in the government at the Centre. In Punjab, BJP does not have a prominent Sikh face and with the Farm Laws now fading from public memory to some degree, it is ready for renewing ties with Shiromani Akali Dal. However, sources say there are some hiccups that need to be sorted. Deve Gowda’s JD(S) is also cozying up to BJP after Congress ate into its vote-bank in the Karnataka elections.
With 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh has been BJP’s biggest strength in the Lok Sabha under Modi. Along with Apna Dal, BJP is now in the process of getting Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) into NDA. One cannot completely rule out RLD walking into the NDA post elections. In Bihar, Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM) has already moved to the NDA.
Dushyant Chautala’s JJP may contest all 10 seats in Haryana but will be fine with joining NDA post-polls. In the 2024 elections it will cut into the Jat votes, affecting Congress and helping the BJP.
BJP is weak in the southern states and has been looking for allies with limited success. Most of the parties that have joined the NDA from down South are small with pockets of influence. As a result, NDA has not managed to get seats in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Indian politics is full of uncertainties and surprising electoral outcomes are de rigueur. In case BJP falls short of a majority, the regional parties aligned with it may play a crucial role. As for the Opposition, the very survival of the regional parties at the national stage hinges on their individual and collective performance in the Lok Sabha polls in 2024.
Neither BJP nor Congress can risk fighting the next general elections without the support of these regional parties.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)