Opinion | Why Trump Has a More Plausible Path to the Presidency, in 19 Maps

The best evidence that American politics is deeply, stubbornly and immovably stuck is that the presidential race is back where it started in the Electoral College race for 270 votes, despite the work, time and money by Democrats and Republicans to expand their chances in more states.

Donald Trump had hoped to exploit President Biden’s weaknesses and pick off Democratic-leaning Virginia and Minnesota. But against Kamala Harris, he is back to banking on a Sun Belt swing state strategy while hoping to win at least one industrial state. Ms. Harris had hoped that her summer momentum might put Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and possibly even North Carolina in better contention than they looked for Mr. Biden. But now, she is back to banking on a blue wall swing state strategy of winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

What has remained a constant all along is this: Pennsylvania and Georgia are the two most pivotal states in the campaign. If Mr. Trump is able to carry Pennsylvania or Ms. Harris prevails in Georgia, either would have a decisive advantage in winning the election.

The reason for such a dead-even race is that the deep divisions in our country are all but impermeable to events surrounding the campaign, including the historic turmoil of 2024 (inflation, assassination attempts, a president dropping out, etc.). That is why Mr. Biden was virtually tied with Mr. Trump in many polls before their June debate even though the president had an abysmal job approval rating in the 30s and 70 percent of Americans thought the country was headed in the wrong direction.

That is why Mr. Trump’s standing in the polls has not changed despite becoming a convicted felon and constantly making statements that are flat-out lies.

And that is why Ms. Harris — who has raised over $1 billion and has heavily outspent Mr. Trump, and won virtually every news cycle for two months and by all accounts dominated the debate — is running at best only even in national and swing state polling.

I have been working in politics since 1980, and in every single presidential election, at this point in the campaign, I had a clear sense of the winner. (OK, I got it wrong in 2016.) Heading into the final weekend of the race, it is not clear which candidate will win.

Given Mr. Trump’s resiliency and his advantages in the Sun Belt states, I believe he has a more plausible path to winning the Electoral College than Ms. Harris does. Still, I would not count Ms. Harris out, because of the potency of the issue of abortion, her superior ground game and the fact that a majority of Americans do not want four more years of Mr. Trump as president. Not to mention that in the closing days of the campaign, Mr. Trump has become increasingly erratic, which may magnify any concerns voters have about his return to the White House.

Let’s start with the basics. For the third presidential election cycle in a row, the winner will come down to the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Ms. Harris’s most likely path is carrying Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The demographics, issues and voting history favor the Democrats, who have done better than the G.O.P. in statewide elections since 2018. She is in tougher shape in the Sun Belt states: In the most recent NBC poll, she has dropped 20 points with Hispanic voters and four points with Black voters. According to a recent analysis by William Frey of the Brookings Institution, based on recent census data, the minority share of the eligible voting population represents more than 40 percent in Arizona and over 45 percent in Georgia and Nevada.

Republicans have improved their voter registration numbers in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in the past four years, and there is nothing in the early voting patterns in those Sun Belt states that Democrats should find encouraging.

A Look Ahead to Election Day

Part of the difficulty in confidently or even tentatively predicting the outcome of the election is the country’s negative view of both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris, with both of their favorability ratings underwater. Mr. Trump is easily winning on most of the issues that matter most to voters, but he is losing badly to Ms. Harris on who has the character and temperament to serve as president.

Given the Biden-Harris administration’s low approval rating in handling the economy and immigration, a more normal Republican candidate would likely win this election in a landslide.

Conversely, a majority of the country has never approved of Mr. Trump as a candidate or as president and would clearly prefer not to go back to four more years of Trumpian chaos.

Ms. Harris has been hurt far more than is generally recognized by a short campaign. Running for president is not like seeking any other office. The grind and pressure of a primary make for better candidates by forcing them to articulate a vision of where they want to lead the country. Because Mr. Biden stayed in the race in 2023 and half of 2024, Ms. Harris did not have the time or the political muscle tone to develop a compelling narrative about where she would lead the country if elected president. That has prevented her from closing the deal with some voters who do not want to support Mr. Trump.

These two imperfect candidates are also operating in a political environment where voting is largely determined by gender and education.

We are on track for the largest gender gap in voting in American history. This trend of women disproportionately voting for Democrats while men support Republicans first surfaced in the 1980 election. Based on the most recent NBC poll, there is currently a record 30-point gender gap — seven points higher than in 2020.

The gap in voting based on education is even more pronounced. In an analysis by Bill McInturff of the most recent NBC polling, there is a 43-point gap in voting between college graduates and those who did not graduate from college.

Given this environment, the outcome of this election will likely be determined by which candidate is able to carry swing voters.

There are two groups of swing voters to focus on in these final days. The first group is undecided voters — with a particular focus on independents, disaffected Republicans who do not like Mr. Trump but are reluctant to support a Democrat, young non-college-educated Black men and Hispanics and white non-college-educated women.

But there’s a second set of swing voters that may have an even greater impact on the winner. These swing voters know whom they would support but are not sure if they are going to vote. They remain a sizable group despite the fact that we had the highest turnout in over 100 years in the 2020 election. Even with this uptick in interest, one-third of the country’s voters — representing over 80 million people — did not turn out to vote in 2020.

The foundation of Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and a central part of his strategy for winning next week — is centered around white non-college-educated voters. Notably, they make up over 50 percent of all eligible voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Within this demographic, Mr. Trump is particularly focused on men, which is why he spent three hours doing Joe Rogan’s podcast. In the NBC poll, he is carrying white non-college-educated men by 42 points.

The Harris campaign is taking a similar approach, focusing on white college-educated women, who currently favor Ms. Harris by 29 points. She is also trying to elevate the stakes of the campaign in hopes of increasing the turnout of occasional voters by settling on a closing argument that calls out Mr. Trump as a threat to our democracy.

The outcome of this election will likely be determined by those two groups of voters in the swing states. For the first group, do they have enough confidence in Ms. Harris to be president or will they opt for Mr. Trump, thinking that for better or worse, they know what they are getting? And for the second group, is this election important enough for them to go out and vote?

These are the voters and states that will determine the next president.