84% of total Covid cases from 10 states with highest infections | India…

NEW DELHI: A higher number of Covid-19 tests per million population by a state may not necessarily co-relate to more confirmed cases detected or high fatality rates. The top 10 states with highest confirmed cases —Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP, MP, West Bengal, Karnataka and Bihar — together account for 84% of the total cases and 95% of the fatalities.
A TOI study shows Delhi, TN, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Maharashtra, in that order, have carried out maximum tests per million population. However, the order of the top five states changes to Delhi, Maharashtra, TN, Gujarat and Rajasthan when it comes to maximum confirmed cases per million.
Highest deaths have been reported from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, MP and Bengal, together accounting for 83% of the 6,650 deceased. But on a case-fatality rate, the top five are Gujarat, West Bengal, MP, Maharashtra and Delhi, in that order. As we see, the order changes for tests, number of confirmed cases and fatality rates. More tests does not mean more confirmed cases.
The caveat here is that case detection also depends of contact tracing, monitoring of patients with serious respiratory illnesses and serological surveys of high and low risk populations. Also, death rates are a factor of early detection and clinical management. In Maharashtra, testing is much higher in Mumbai as compared to the rest of the state.
Yet, some aspects stand out : Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bengal and MP with high case-fatality rate or number of deaths per 100 cases, ranging between 4% to 6%, have been conducting fewer tests per million population than Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Karnataka which have fatality rates lower than 3%. The top 10 states with highest Covid cases together have reported over 2 lakh cases as against total countrywide cases of 2.37 lakh, till June 6. More than 6,300 deaths have been reported in these states out of 6,650 across India.
Meanwhile, the situation in Delhi remains worrisome with the positivity rate — confirmed Covid-19 cases per 100 tests — doubling from 7% between May 7-21 to 14% during May19-June 1 and now crossing 25%. Maharashtra has the highest positivity rate but the incidence may be slowing down.