It is now amply clear that the next Lok Sabha elections will be fought between two coalitions- one led by the Congress and the other the BJP- in a bipolar polity. However, the approach and USPs of the two major parties are completely different from each other. BJP will need its allies- many of whom have no presence in the Lower House- for a more micro and limited use where these caste-based smaller parties can help it get the numbers in constituencies where they have influence. INDIA is primarily a conglomeration of regional parties that have sway over one or more states.
Yet, the fate of INDIA will depend significantly on the way Congress performs in the 2024 elections vis-à-vis BJP. In 2014, Congress and BJP were in a direct contest in 189 seats and the saffron party won 166 of these. In 2019, they were in a direct contest in 192 seats of which BJP won 176. This shows BJP has a strike rate of above 85% against the Congress.
The contest between BJP and Congress in 2024 in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will be interesting this time. In Gujarat, Congress is still lost in the woods.
Seat sharing among INDIA partners is perhaps the most crucial issue where all concerned will have to adopt a pragmatic approach and concede space for the greater good. Any partner- be in Congress or any of the regional parties- which take a larger bite than it can chew will adversely impact the whole alliance. Congress can draw lessons from the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections where it had contested on 114 seats in alliance with Samajwadi Party but won only 7 seats in an Assembly of 403.
When it comes to bargaining for seats, INDIA partners will naturally go by past performance. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had either won or came second in 268 Lok Sabha constituencies. It had won 44 seats and stood second in 224.In the 2019 elections, Congress had either won or stood second in 262 seats. It had won 52 seats and was runner-up on 210 seats.With TMC, AAP, NC and others now under the same umbrella, Congress will have to be more accommodative and vice versa.
Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and its win in Karnataka Assembly elections has boosted the morale of the Congress. It stands a bright chance of doing well in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Assembly elections while its situation has improved in Rajasthan (after Sachin Pilot has made an uneasy peace with Ashok Gehlot) and Telangana. More victories and a consistent Rahul Gandhi can come as a shot in the arm.
BJP undoubtedly looks worried. Dependence on more allies- 38 is a larger number than the 24-party coalition government headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee- can be read as a sign of dependence more than an indicator of a larger canvas. This will become clearer if BJP is forced to drop some of its contentious agendas- related more to the concerns of its regional allies than pan-India – in the run-up to the elections. The saffron party will have to do some balancing over polarizing the elections and keeping the NDA flock in good humor.
It is not lost on the people that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had raked up the Uniform Civil Code issue after the Patna conclave of the Opposition. He slammed the opposition twice on Tuesday as the Bengaluru gathering of 26 parties was on.
After being in power for nine years, BJP cannot ignore the anti-incumbency that builds up naturally. Having looked the other way when partners like TDP, JDU, Shiv Sena and SAD walked out, BJP now feels the need for strengthening the NDA, especially in the wake of INDIA being formed.
A lot rides on Modi and his charisma but more would be needed for NDA to get the magic numbers. BJP will try to make the elections presidential to capitalize on Modi’s popularity. In his speech at the NDA meet on Tuesday, Modi tried to reach out to the NDA partners, even being apologetic for not doing so in the last nine years. This is in sharp contrast to TDP Chief N Chandrababu Naidu complaining in months before the 2019 polls that he has tried to meet the PM 29 times but was not given an appointment. He walked out of the NDA days later.
INDIA has made the 2024 elections interesting. Whether this will be sustained in the months to come despite the expected ups and downs, and how far this will damage the NDA will be worth watching.
(Views are personal)